About Futuresource Consulting

Futuresource Consulting, the specialist research and consulting company, is delighted to be the official knowledge partner for CEATEC. The company can trace its roots back to the 1980s and provides market insights into consumer electronics, digital imaging, entertainment media, broadcast, optical manufacturing, storage media, professional IT and education technology.
With more than 70 full-time employees providing in-depth analysis and forecasts across consumer and professional electronics categories, Futuresource is able to advise on market, competitive and technological developments, providing clients with access to the information that helps produce the best possible results.


Global TV Market On Track For 239m Shipments This Year

The global TV market is forecast to reach shipments of 239m units in 2012 according to a new TV market tracking report from Futuresource Consulting.

Following significant declines in Japan and Western Europe, global demand fell by more than 4% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2012, though this is expected to begin to recover during Q2 and Q3 as the major sporting events of the European football championships and the London Olympics will prompt consumers to purchase devices earlier in the replacement cycle than they normally would. However, on the whole, these sporting events will only impact seasonality patterns during 2012, rather than bringing purchases forward by 12 months or more. As a result, Futuresource forecasts show that consumer demand will soften again in the final quarter.

Across the year, TV shipments in emerging regions are forecast to grow by 7% in total, compared with a 12% decline in developed markets. As a result, 2012 will end the year with a decline in shipments of 2% when compared with 2011.

Looking to TV display technologies, LED-based LCD panels are rapidly displacing the older CCFL (Cold Cathode Fluorescent Lamp) LCD technology in the marketplace, as the price gap between the two systems continues to shrink. The global plasma market fell over 20% in Q1 2012 and will fall 14% during the year as the LCD/LED market continues to increase its share of the 40"+ market.

Large screen OLED displays are expected to enter the market in the second half of 2012 and while the high price tag will prevent OLED TVs from becoming a serious threat to LCD's dominance for a few years yet, more than 50,000 units are forecast to ship this year.

In major markets, Japan leads the way in adoption of the LED-based LCD TV technologies, accounting for 62% of Japanese shipments in 2011. Plasma accounted for just 4% of Japanese shipments, with CCFL LCD screens accounting for the remainder of shipments.

3DTVs are expected to account for 18% of global flat panel shipments in 2012, with growth of close to 150% over the previous year. Sales of 3DTVs accelerated during the first quarter of 2012, reaching penetration of close to 20% of flat panel sales in China and Western Europe. However, the USA still lags behind with just over 10% of sales in Q1 2012 being 3D capable. Falling price premiums and a much wider range of 3D sets including lower cost passive 3D models are helping drive adoption of the technology. However, it costs very little for a manufacturer to add 3D features, so consumers are buying TVs with integrated 3D because it is a top-of-the-range model rather than buying it because they want to use the 3D feature. In the home, 3D may well remain a minority interest segment until the glasses-free solution becomes a reality, though on a global basis this won't be a viable mass market offering for at least another three years.

The phenomenal growth in ownership of connected devices, driven by the tablet and smartphone and more recently the connected TV, is changing the structure of the entire entertainment industry. Engagement with the consumer is stronger than ever, and the industry needs this level of engagement to provide consumers with what they want, when they want it. As consumer demand for connectivity continues to increase, the installed base of connected TVs is growing steadily, with the feature now becoming standard on the majority of all major TV vendors' ranges. Shipments of connected TVs will grow by 45% in 2012, with Japan leading the way at 67% penetration of sales, followed by the USA and Western Europe.

Futuresource Conferences @ CEATEC JAPAN 2012 are planned as below.

Wednesday 3rd October 2012 [Room 201A]
(English with Japanese simultaneous interpretation)